Mathematical predictions about who may get infected, become ill or die, or which preventive measure will work best to slow down the transmission of the infection. These predictions are calculated using available data from currently evolving outbreaks and previous outbreaks.
Models are only as reliable as the data that inform them and the quality of data on COVID-19 is variable, limiting the usefulness of models that have been published.
Epidemiological models can be useful tools for policymakers and planners however, they make “informed guesses” only and should be treated with caution.
TIP: Modeling is based on many assumptions and the forecasts are only as useful as the closeness of the assumptions to what is happening in reality.